Rusty’s Intelligence Blog
RANE, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis and News Articles
The initial article from WaPo that I've attached to this distro list is the first I've seen that discusses in depth the Hamas attack on Oct 7, the planning, surveillance, the very effective operation security, the simple but effective deception operations that lulled the IDF and Israeli's politicians and national command structure into complacency and the unexpected success, even to Hamas commanders, of the assault. It also considers the motivations and the desired endgame of Hamas leadership and the general acceptance of martyrdom of many Hamas fighters and commanders. “Palestine is ours from the river to the sea and from the south to the north,” Khaled Mashaal, the group's former leader, said in 2012, in a speech in Gaza celebrating the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas. “There will be no concession on any inch of the land.” (FYI, I've also added an AP article explaining the use of the phrase "From the river to the sea")Hamas repeatedly said they would never negotiate Israel's existence and in the months leading up to Oct 7 Israeli leadership forgot that fact, but they won't do it again!
I just added several more from RANE, Soufan and Zeihan including a good analysis for RANE titled "The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank," which you may find of interest.
Hamas Envisioned Deeper Attacks, Aiming to Provoke an Israeli War
‘From the River to the Sea': Why These 6 Words Spark Fury and Passion Over the Israel-Hamas War
The First Shale Revolution:Humble Beginnings
With ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer, it's time to kiss the days of mom-and-pop shale operations goodbye. But before we look at what's next, let's look at the shale journey over the last two decades.
Thanks to high oil prices in the early aughts, small shale operations could innovate and develop new techniques for extracting that black gold. Once the US was close to achieving energy independence, super majors caught a whiff of the money and started buying up those smaller producers.
This recent acquisition signals the end of an era as the super majors now dominate shale production. So what does that mean for US shale? While there will be less innovation and slower production growth, ExxonMobil will provide more stability to the industry.
But that's only the beginning of this story...we'll be breaking down the second shale revolution tomorrow.
Several New Articles and OpEds
With all the horrific news I've been passing on about the War in Israel, I'm happy to include a WSJ story of courage and success against the Hamas onslaught on Saturday, October 7. "When Hamas Attacked, This Israeli Kibbutz Fought Back and Won." This is the story of the small, 12-man security force at Kibbutz Mefalsim and the defense of their homes and the 1000 men, women, and children of their community.
I have also included three OpEds on this War. One in the Times of Israel by Yossi Klein Halevi, "What this war is about." And two from Al Jazeera: the first of these by Marwan Bishara,a Senior political analyst at Al Jazeera, "Rethinking Palestine-Israel, Hegemonic security vs true justice"; and a second by Wesam Ahmad, a Palestinian human rights advocate, "The mask is off: Gaza has exposed the hypocrisy of international law."
When Hamas Attacked, This Israeli Kibbutz Fought Back and Won
Rethinking Palestine-Israel, Hegemonic Security Vs True Justice
The Mask Is Off: Gaza Has Exposed the Hypocrisy of International Law
More Coverage and Analysis on the War in Israel and Other World News
As expected, there is now a Tsunami of eyewitness stories and analyses by experts on a wide variety of subjects related to the War in Israel. So much so that there is now a fog of information permeating the news space. I've been forced to select what I think are the most valuable to understand an ever-changing situation on the ground, so be patient with me if I don't cover subjects you may find more interesting.
I've included two articles on the Laws of International Warfare: the first from the NY Times, "Israel, Gaza and the Laws of War;" and the second from the Times of Israel, "Hamas actions are war crimes, could constitute genocide..." They both make it very clear that horrific Hamas attacks on civilians, violence toward women and children, and the taking of hostages constitute "War Crimes!" However, they also make it clear that Israel may already have committed its own and will likely commit many more as the IDF surrounds the 2 million+ Palestinians in Gaza as it prepares the battle space for the most difficult and dangerous type of military operation, urban combat.
I've included three articles on intelligence failures and the Iranian connections: an analytical piece from Cipher Brief's John McLaughlin – “Why Did Israeli Intelligence Fail? History Suggests Many Causes"; Peter Bergen's excellent OpEd in CNN that considers Iran's strategic goals in the region -"Opinion: Did Hamas attacks have a hidden target"; and a NY Times piece on the intelligence Hamas had about the Israeli situation on the ground - "The Secrets Hamas Knew About Israel’s Military."
The last article today is from WaPo and focuses on a very real problem for Israeli leadership, the potential for additional attacks from other groups who may wish to take advantage of the IDF's focus on Gaza: "With all eyes on Gaza war, violence is quietly mounting in the West Bank."
Israel, Gaza and the Laws of War
Hamas actions are war crimes, could constitute genocide – international law experts
Why Did Israeli Intelligence Fail? History Suggests Many Causes.
Opinion: Did Hamas attacks have a hidden target?
The Secrets Hamas Knew About Israel’s Military
With all eyes on Gaza war, violence is quietly mounting in the West Bank
Today's Analysis of the War in Israel.
There is significantly more information available today from the Media and the intelligence analytical services I subscribe to on the Hamas attacks on Israel which occurred on Saturday.
Two WaPo articles of interest, one on the involvement of Iran in supporting Hamas and a second on the "Iron Wall" that failed to even slow down the Hamas terrorists, as perhaps as many as 1500 breached it and attacked Israel.
There is also an excellent WSJ article on Israel being prepared for a high-tech war and Hamas using very low-tech in their assaults. In recent years Israel has shifted from reliance on regular IDF units for its defence to its current focus on air power and technology. And while the "Iron Dome" worked as advertised the "Iron Wall," its multiple sensors and quick reaction forces failed.
The Times of Israel has reported, in the article attached below, that the chief of Egyptian intelligence warned PM Netanyahu directly that "something big" was in the works (which the PM has since termed "fake news") Whether the Egyptian intelligence warned the PM or not, I do not doubt that there are and have been for some time many peer-to-peer contacts between the Egyptian and Israeli intelligence services and that Israel also has numerous high-level penetrations of those same Egyptian intelligence agencies, which would seem to downgrade this intelligence.
There are also two good analytical pieces from RANE: one on possible Iranian motives in backing the Hamas attack; and a second on the potential short and medium-term consequences of the current Israeli ground invasion of Gaza on the political, economic, and diplomatic positioning of the various nations/factions in the ME.
And lastly, for those of you who'd like a primer on the last hundred years of history that has led us to the current challenges the world faces in the ME, I've included a very well-done “Timeline of ME Conflicts” over the last hundred years done by USA Today.
Hamas received weapons and training from Iran, officials say
How Hamas breached Israel’s ‘Iron Wall’
Israel Was Prepared for a Different War
Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’
The Implications of an Israeli Ground Invasion in Gaza
Iran's Potential Motives for Backing the Hamas Attack on Israel
Timeline of conflict: Why the 2023 Israeli-Palestinian fighting is among the most brutal in years
RANE, Soufan and Zeihan analysis plus several news articles
Other news first. There has been an arrest of a former Army intelligence officer, Joseph Daniel Schmidt, 29, at San Francisco International Airport as he arrived from Hong Kong, for providing Top Secret, National Defense Information to China. I've attached one of the many articles on this arrest below.
Also, I've attached several articles on the Hamas terror attacks in Israel and the IDF response, which are just beginning. Even with the world leaders calling for restraint on the part of Israel, I suspect the horrific carnage by Hamas fighters at the music festival will make Israeli leaders deaf to such pleas, at least for the foreseeable future.
There is one question that continues to receive significant media attention, even as Israeli retaliation operations proceed. It is how the best, pound-for-pound, intelligence service in the world failed to predict the recent Hamas attacks. It will take time to learn who failed to collect, analyze, and disseminate the actionable intelligence that might have been available on these attacks. Based on the several reports of Iranian involvement and the fact that it serves Iran's strategic goals in the region, it is remarkable that Mossad did not learn of the operation early in its planning cycle.
I think I recall that in the 1973 Yom Kippur War Mossad did report Egyptian and Syrian troop movements into advanced positions along the DMZ, but the political leadership in Israel did not believe either country capable of a serious attack and thought that both Egypt and Syria were simply involved in war games. So IDF reserves were not called up.
To me, what happened over the weekend in Israel is an entirely different situation and it is inexplicable that the several Israeli intelligence services could have missed the Hamas meetings with their Iranian advisors, the movement into Gaza of the various logistical supplies required of an operation of this size, and the early assaults that destroyed the walls and barriers around Gaza allowing Hamas terrorist to stream into Israel. There are supposed to be advanced electronic warning systems to detect tunnels and I would presume attacks on the walls/barriers. Why did they fail? And there must have been quick reaction forces on duty to respond to such incursions. Where were they?
Lots of questions and too early perhaps to get meaningful answers. But that will not stop them from being asked!
How the Hamas Surprise Attack from Gaza on Israel Could Play Out
Israel Goes on Offensive in Gaza After Shocking Hamas Invasion
Hamas Terror Assaults on Israel
All,
It is early days and I'll be adding more as information continues to come in from Israel. However, casualties on both sides are high and rising (current reports indicate that more than 600 Israelis have been killed and 2000+ wounded. Palestinian casualties in Gaze are high, with estimates of 400 killed and 1500 wounded).
In addition to more than 2,500 indiscriminate rocket attacks, Hamas has conducted multiple terror assaults, not just on the Israeli government, police, and military facilities and personnel but also on the civilian population. The results have caused the deaths, injuries, and the taking of an estimated 100 hostages, including women, children, and older Israelis.
The Internet videos of the Hamas attacks are very disturbing and I would caution against viewing them. This is an all-out war on civilians and the many videos now on the Internet are more than distressing and will undoubtedly get worse.
Many in the Media are comparing this attack to the combined military assaults of Egypt and Syria in the 1973 Yom Kippur War because of the failure of Israeli intelligence to predict the 1973 invasions and the apparent failure to predict the current Hamas terror attacks (See the attached WSJ article). The determination of who is at fault for this intelligence failure, if past examples like Pearl Harbor and 9/11 are a guide, will go on for years.
In the shorter term expect US military supplies, which are stretched because of our support for the Ukrainians (see the attached article from Defense News), to be offered to Israel, which will further strain our supply chains and make it more imperative that Congress authorize the funding necessary to reconstitute of our military stockpiles.
Congressional inaction damages both Ukrainian and US militaries
After Attack, Israel Wrestles With Question: How Could This Happen?
Zeihan Podcasts
Russian Oil Thrives Despite European Sanctions
Russia Might Lose Its Influence in Moldova and Transnistria
European Sanctions Cause Russian Natural Gas Collapse
The European Union: Will It Adapt or Die?
Our Normandy Diary
So, our trip to follow in the footsteps of Easy Company, 506th Parachute Infantry Regiment began at Dulles Airport on September 7, 2023. My two sons, Devon and Sean, and I had been planning this trip for more than two years. The trip was initially to be a celebration of my 80th birthday, but schedules caused us to postpone it by more than a year. It was my wife Cindy who acted as our travel agent and set up the entire trip. Thanks, Cindy!
We flew into Charles de Gaulle airport, north of Paris, two days early and spent an interesting afternoon and the following full day walking the streets of Paris along with more than a few hundred thousand travelers in town for the International Rugby World Cup Games. The weather was beautiful and so was Paris! It was hot though and the boys led me on a forced march of 14,000 steps through the streets of Paris.
Zeihan and Soufan analysis and two additional articles
Hello All,
Got back from Europe on Monday but have been a bit ill, due to water I drank by mistake on Friday at our hotel in Munich. I'll have a special issue of the distribution list with pictures of the trip and a narrative, hopefully over the weekend. The trip was extraordinary!!!
As for this rather longish distro list, lots to get out. Several of you hoped I'd not work the distro list while on vacation. But I did, a little. I saved some of the most interesting articles and they are attached. First, our colleague Col. Forest Rittgers sent along a detailed update on the war in Ukraine, the Russian S-400 Surface to Air Missle system, and how the Ukrainians have been able to exploit weaknesses in it. The data on the S-400 is below and the detailed update on the war is attached. Many thanks, sir, for sending this along.
And lastly, I've included 2 articles from History.com that may be of interest on Benedict Arnold and Bleeding Kansas.
Best,
Rusty
Europe's Energy Prospects Ahead of the Winter Heating Season
How Bleeding Kansas Led to the Civil War
Rane, Soufan, Zeihan Analysis Plus Several News Articles
All,There are two well-written RANE docs I can recommend to you today: "How Will China Tackle Its Mounting Real Estate Woes?" and particularly "The Future of Jihadism in a Multipolar World."
This second on the future of Jihadism is an in-depth discussion of the impact of an ever-evolving international situation on jihadist terror groups, particularly al Qaeda and ISIS. The article sees the US and our Western allies pivoting from an almost exclusive counterterrorism focus to more traditional adversaries of the past, Russia, China, North Korea, et al, and concerns with the war in Ukraine, and disasters associated with climate change, particularly a global food crisis. The RANE analysis suggests that a return to a multipolar environment and the increased focus by the US and our Western allies on economic and diplomatic competition with adversaries like China and Russia could result in the West having less bandwidth over the long term to deal with the counterterrorism threat from Jihadist groups like al Qaeda, ISIS, and their like.
I have also included an excellent WSJ update on the Ukrainian offensive FYI.
Lastly, this blog will be “off the air” starting a week from today as I going on the Band of Brothers Tour in France, Belgium, and Germany for most of September with my two sons, Devon and Sean. I'll have comments and pictures once we return.
Best to you all, Rusty
How Will China Tackle Its Mounting Real Estate Woes
The Future of Jihadism in a Multipolar World
Doctor Sentenced to 18 Years for Trying to Join ISIS
Ukraine’s Slog Prompts Focus on Next Year’s Fight-WSJ
Rane, Zeihan Analysis and Ap News Articles on Death of Yevgeny Prigozhin Plus Other News
I'm getting this out today as the news is full of accounting of the recent death, probably an assassination/bombing, of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group. Many, including your author, thought it was only a matter of time, before Putin or the legion of enemies Prigozhin had, got to him. I've included pieces by the AP, RANE, and Zeihan on his death, among the hundreds of accounts in national and international media today.
Us Intelligence Assessment Shows Intentionally Caused Explosion Crashed Wagner Chief’s Plane-Ap
The Wagner Group After the Death of Yevgeny Prigozhin
The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia
Robert Hanssen Dies at 79
A NY Times article on breaking news that former FBI Special Agent Robert Hanssen was found dead in his cell at the Supermax federal prison in Colorado yesterday, “Robert Hanssen, F.B.I. Agent Exposed as Spy for Moscow, Dies at 79.” Some of our colleagues knew and worked with Hanssen. I recall my partner at the time, David Major, as we learned of his arrest in February 2001, asking Paul Moore and me if it was “our Bob Hassen” who’d just been taken into custody. We were all shocked! And then, as more of the story became available to the public, we began to understand that none of us, me particularly, had never really known Bob Hanssen at all. If you are interested, the best book on the Hanssen case is by David Wise, “Spy, The Inside Story of How the FBI’s Robert Hanssen Betrayed America.”
Robert Hanssen, F.B.I. Agent Exposed as Spy for Moscow, Dies at 79.
