RANE, Soufan and Zeihan analysis plus several news articles
Other news first. There has been an arrest of a former Army intelligence officer, Joseph Daniel Schmidt, 29, at San Francisco International Airport as he arrived from Hong Kong, for providing Top Secret, National Defense Information to China. I've attached one of the many articles on this arrest below.
Also, I've attached several articles on the Hamas terror attacks in Israel and the IDF response, which are just beginning. Even with the world leaders calling for restraint on the part of Israel, I suspect the horrific carnage by Hamas fighters at the music festival will make Israeli leaders deaf to such pleas, at least for the foreseeable future.
There is one question that continues to receive significant media attention, even as Israeli retaliation operations proceed. It is how the best, pound-for-pound, intelligence service in the world failed to predict the recent Hamas attacks. It will take time to learn who failed to collect, analyze, and disseminate the actionable intelligence that might have been available on these attacks. Based on the several reports of Iranian involvement and the fact that it serves Iran's strategic goals in the region, it is remarkable that Mossad did not learn of the operation early in its planning cycle.
I think I recall that in the 1973 Yom Kippur War Mossad did report Egyptian and Syrian troop movements into advanced positions along the DMZ, but the political leadership in Israel did not believe either country capable of a serious attack and thought that both Egypt and Syria were simply involved in war games. So IDF reserves were not called up.
To me, what happened over the weekend in Israel is an entirely different situation and it is inexplicable that the several Israeli intelligence services could have missed the Hamas meetings with their Iranian advisors, the movement into Gaza of the various logistical supplies required of an operation of this size, and the early assaults that destroyed the walls and barriers around Gaza allowing Hamas terrorist to stream into Israel. There are supposed to be advanced electronic warning systems to detect tunnels and I would presume attacks on the walls/barriers. Why did they fail? And there must have been quick reaction forces on duty to respond to such incursions. Where were they?
Lots of questions and too early perhaps to get meaningful answers. But that will not stop them from being asked!
How the Hamas Surprise Attack from Gaza on Israel Could Play Out
Israel Goes on Offensive in Gaza After Shocking Hamas Invasion