Rusty’s Intelligence Blog
Zeihan Post America Series Continues
Today's country shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Sure, Turkey has been relatively silent over the past 70 years, but as American guardianship of the global seas declines, Turkey will reemerge as a dominant power.
Much of Turkey's significance stems from its very, very fortunate geography; it controls the Turkish Straits and several other key waterways. This means that if anyone wants to move anything in this region, guess who they have to work with - Bingo - Turkey.
That's the driving factor here, but it leaves Turkey with some big decisions. Should it partner with Ukraine against Russia or expand its influence in the Caucasus? Should it try to dominate the Aegean or displace German power in the Balkans? Should it absorb Mesopotamia and become the determining power of the Persian Gulf or make a bid for control of the Eastern Mediterranean? Given Turkey's limited power to pursue all options simultaneously, it has some hefty strategic decisions to make that will shape its future.
For our next installment in the 'Post-American' series, we're looking at Northern Africa. This region only has a few countries that will turn out alright and a lot that will hurt for some time.
So, who's topping the leaderboard? Countries like Morocco and Tunisia have a leg up thanks to their -somewhat- functional economies. On the flipside, countries like Algeria, Libya, and Egypt have an uphill battle ahead of them.
This region will be far from stagnant between military interventions, dependency on extra-regional powers, and a looming famine. But we're only scratching the surface of this continent, so we'll dive into Sub-Saharan Africa later in the series.
Failure at the Fence
WaPo and Frontline have teamed up to produce a 28-minute video on how the Israeli "Iron Fence" failed on Oct. 7, 2023. I've included the written article below, as well as the YouTube.
Merry Christmas! RANE, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis Plus New Articles
I've attached an excellent accounting of the Boston Tea Party by HCR on the 250th anniversary of that event, FYI. I have also included Peter Zeihan's Christmas gift, " a 'Post-America' series that breaks down what the world looks like as the US steps back as global protector." I will include future segments as they come out.
Lastly, I've included a WaPo article on the massive AI upgrading of French CCTV: "AI is powering a revolution in policing, at the Olympics and beyond."
Time now for me to become a movie critic: for those interested in deep fakes or wondering about the fears of civil rights groups concerning the use of AI by government agencies, you might watch the 2019 British series "Capture." The first season is on Prime Video and a second season is coming. Cindy and I liked it and would give it 4 stars. My Christmas gift to you all...(Peter Zeihan's gift for the Holidays gave me the idea).
250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party
Ai Is Powering a Revolution in Policing, at the Olympics and Beyond
He’s Wanted for Wirecard’s Missing $2 Billion. He’s Now Suspected of Being a Russian Spy
Ukraine's Long and Bumpy Road to EU Membership Officially Begins
In the Red Sea, Houthi Attacks Force the U.S. to Mull a Tougher Response
The Crusade Against Ukraine: Eurasia’s Last Medieval Power At War
Another of the organizations I follow is the Hoover Institution. I've attached an excellent article from their latest edition of STRATEGIKA: "The Crusade Against Ukraine: Eurasia’s Last Medieval Power At War." STRATEGIKA is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians, analysts, and military personnel focusing on military history and contemporary conflict. If you've ever wondered what's going on in the minds of Putin and his fellow Russians concerning how they view war in general and specifically as it pertains to Ukraine, this is a good place to start. I've also attached a listing of other, similar articles in this edition of STRATEGIKA below, in case you find the topic useful and want to read more.
The Crusade Against Ukraine: Eurasia’s Last Medieval Power At War
Ukraine and the Russian Way of War
Avoiding Strategic Traps—Key to Prevailing in Great Power Competition
Putin’s Legitimacy is the Strategic Target
The Peril Of Ukrainian Attacks Against Nuclear Russia?
The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests vs. Ideals
The Aims and Implications of Putin's Trip to the UAE and Saudi Arabia
Espionage Case - Victor Manuel Rocha
We are following an interesting espionage case involving a senior State Department officer and former Ambassador to Bolivia, Victor Manuel Rocha, 73, and I've included the DOJ press release, with a link to the complaint, and an AP article.
I've also included a RANE article on Henry Kissinger's legacy for those who don't know as much as you'd like to know about the very bright, pragmatic bureaucrat and negotiator.
Former Career Us Diplomat Charged With Secretly Spying for Cuban Intelligence for Decades
The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests vs. Ideals
Rane, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis Plus News Articles
It appears that the exchange of Hamas hostages for Palestinian prisoners and the cease-fire in Gaza is holding a day at a time with significant world pressure on Israel, including from the US, to extend the peace. Our colleague Dan Mulvenna and I were just discussing yesterday the widespread political demonstrations against the War in Israel on college campuses and elsewhere and that it was very like the anti-Vietnam War movement's demonstrations and riots of the late 1960s and 70s. And today (Wed. Nov. 29, 2023) this article in the WSJ hit the streets: "Gaza Protests at Colleges Open a Generational Divide." For those of you who remember the anti-Vietnam War demonstations, I thought you might find its contents of interest.
I have also included an article on the attempted murder of a Sikh separatist leader in NY from the AP. This is a similar case to one that occurred in Canada in September which put significant strains on relations between those two countries and will, no doubt, affect future US-India affairs.
Gaza Protests at Colleges Open a Generational Divide
Indian Official Plotted to Assassinate Sikh Separatist Leader in New York, Us Prosecutors Say
What Is Russia's Role in the Mideast Crisis?
How Much Longer Will Israel and Hamas Keep Extending Their Truce?
What To Watch For at the COP28 Climate Summit
Exclusive: Maps Show U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Across Globe, Spanning 78 Countries
From Peter Zeihan
For those looking for some longer format content, here's a recent interview from the NAIOP Podcast: Inside CRE.
My Latest Interview on the NAIOP Podcast: Inside CRE
I chatted with Christopher Ware about current U.S. demographic shifts, how the labor force is changing, and why now is the best time for businesses to hire and borrow. I also dive into China’s precipitous population decline, how the cost of manufactured goods will increase, and why we need to double the size of the industrial plant in North America.
I encourage you to tune in if you want a well-rounded, long-form discussion.
Our Warnings on Hamas Were Ignored, Israel’s Women Border Troops Say
In addition to our normal offerings today, I would call your particular attention to an article from Politico that our colleague, Gina Bennett, forwarded to me on Friday: "Our warnings on Hamas were ignored, Israel’s women border troops say." It is a very troubling and sad piece on the failure of Israeli senior military, intelligence, and national command officials to take seriously the reporting from the IDF's watcher unit (many of whom lost their lives in the attack) on the "Iron Wall" in the months preceding the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks. This is the first of what I expect will be many reports on the significant intelligence and command failures that led the Hamas assaults to be successful beyond their wildest expectations. Gina and I have discussed similarities to the numerous pre-9/11 intelligence failures, which is also a module that we currently teach to our USIC students. Thanks, Gina for sending this article!
Our Warnings on Hamas Were Ignored, Israel’s Women Border Troops Say
This week's infographic describes over a century of politics and conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Rane, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis Plus Numerous News Articles and Commentaries
There is a lot for you to process in the edition of the distribution list, so let's get started.
HCR had an informative take on the APEC conference in San Francisco this week regarding US-China relations and I've included a portion of her Nov. 17 offering below. Peter Zeihan's coverage of the same event is included below as well.
I've also read and included an excellent WaPo article that continues to flesh out answers to the questions about intelligence failures vs Hamas planning, training, OPSEC, execution, and successes on Oct. 7. The article is titled "How Hamas exploited Israel’s reliance on tech to breach barrier on Oct. 7." WaPo has done an excellent job of analyzing and combining graphics and video evidence into an 11-minute video of the months-long Hamas operation. I recommend you give it a look. It is compelling!
There are also several articles analyzing the hostage/prisoner exchange including one by al Jazeera you may find of interest.
I've attached both the written transcript and the link to the Ezra Klein podcast of a very complete, but necessarily longish, look at the history of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process in the NY Times: "The Best Primer I’ve Heard on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Efforts."
I've also attached the full article but excerpted my "Cliff Notes" version just below from the Monday NY Times "Between Israelis and Palestinians, a Lethal Psychological Chasm Grows." It speaks to the intractability of the positions on both sides and how unlikely there will ever be a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
"The relentless weaponization of history goes all the way back to biblical times and the divergent fates of the estranged sons of Abraham — Isaac, the patriarch of the Israelites, and Ishmael, a prophet of Islam. (Muslims regard all three as prophets.)In the intervening decades, Hamas and the ultranationalist religious Israeli right have each extended their influence. The conflict now involves fundamentalist religious ideologies, distinct in critical regards but equally convinced that all the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River has been deeded to them by God.
Mahmoud al-Zahar, a co-founder of Hamas, whose charter calls for Israel’s destruction, told me in an interview that year: “Israel will be eliminated because it is a foreign body.” Referring to Israeli Jews, he said, “Why should they come from Ethiopia, or Poland or America? There are six million in Palestine. OK, take them. America is very wide. You can make a new district for Jews.”
Neither people, Israeli nor Palestinian, present in roughly equal numbers on the land to which they are fiercely attached, is going away. But increasingly each has denied even the identity of the other. West Bank Palestinians seldom refer to “Israelis,” almost always to “Jews.” Israel resists calling its Arab minority, more than 20 percent of the population, “Palestinians,” which is what they are.
“You are dealing with two traumatized peoples,” said Gershom Gorenberg, a historian and author. “The trauma of the present is linked to multigenerational trauma. People can’t even agree on events, let alone what the events mean.”
In a video of a Hamas gunman involved in the Oct. 7 massacre, the gunman phones his father back in Gaza and says: “I am on the other side killing Jews. They cannot live happily when we live the way we live.”
The Palestinian hatred Moshe Dayan perceived and vowed to resist by being “prepared and armed, strong and determined,” grows still, fed by Israeli oppression, fencing-off and control, as well as chronic Palestinian misgovernment. Palestinians in Gaza, whose dead number more than 12,000 according to the health ministry in Gaza, fear annihilation.
These fears are met by the “Never Again” of a Jewish people who know the meaning of genocide in the form of the Holocaust and seek through the foundation of their own state to put an end to millennial persecution. The defeat on Oct. 7 was a shattering blow to this aspiration.
This war in Gaza, triggered by Hamas’s ruthless application of its charter, is existential in that sense for an Israel that suddenly feels smaller and more vulnerable."
Heather Cox Richardson - November 17
Between Israelis and Palestinians, a Lethal Psychological Chasm Grows
How Hamas Exploited Israel’s Reliance on Tech to Breach Barrier on Oct. 7
Moorpark Professor Arrested in Death of Jewish Protester Paul Kessler in Thousand Oaks
Pageantry vs. Progress: Reviewing the Biden-Xi Meeting
The Threat of Russian Influence Operations in Serbia and Kosovo
What to Make of Hamas and Israel's Pending Cease-Fire
Soufan Analysis Articles
Israeli Cabinet Approves Hostage Deal and Temporary Cease-Fire in Gaza
Differences Affect the Iranian ‘Axis of Resistance' Response to the Mideast Crisis
Jordan Faces Risks From Israel-Hamas War
Anti-Semitic and Islamophobic Incidents on the Rise as Gaza Conflict Continues
RANE, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis and News Articles
The initial article from WaPo that I've attached to this distro list is the first I've seen that discusses in depth the Hamas attack on Oct 7, the planning, surveillance, the very effective operation security, the simple but effective deception operations that lulled the IDF and Israeli's politicians and national command structure into complacency and the unexpected success, even to Hamas commanders, of the assault. It also considers the motivations and the desired endgame of Hamas leadership and the general acceptance of martyrdom of many Hamas fighters and commanders. “Palestine is ours from the river to the sea and from the south to the north,” Khaled Mashaal, the group's former leader, said in 2012, in a speech in Gaza celebrating the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas. “There will be no concession on any inch of the land.” (FYI, I've also added an AP article explaining the use of the phrase "From the river to the sea")Hamas repeatedly said they would never negotiate Israel's existence and in the months leading up to Oct 7 Israeli leadership forgot that fact, but they won't do it again!
I just added several more from RANE, Soufan and Zeihan including a good analysis for RANE titled "The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank," which you may find of interest.
Hamas Envisioned Deeper Attacks, Aiming to Provoke an Israeli War
‘From the River to the Sea': Why These 6 Words Spark Fury and Passion Over the Israel-Hamas War
The First Shale Revolution:Humble Beginnings
With ExxonMobil's acquisition of Pioneer, it's time to kiss the days of mom-and-pop shale operations goodbye. But before we look at what's next, let's look at the shale journey over the last two decades.
Thanks to high oil prices in the early aughts, small shale operations could innovate and develop new techniques for extracting that black gold. Once the US was close to achieving energy independence, super majors caught a whiff of the money and started buying up those smaller producers.
This recent acquisition signals the end of an era as the super majors now dominate shale production. So what does that mean for US shale? While there will be less innovation and slower production growth, ExxonMobil will provide more stability to the industry.
But that's only the beginning of this story...we'll be breaking down the second shale revolution tomorrow.