Rusty’s Intelligence Blog
RANE, Soufan and Zeihan analysis plus several news articles
Other news first. There has been an arrest of a former Army intelligence officer, Joseph Daniel Schmidt, 29, at San Francisco International Airport as he arrived from Hong Kong, for providing Top Secret, National Defense Information to China. I've attached one of the many articles on this arrest below.
Also, I've attached several articles on the Hamas terror attacks in Israel and the IDF response, which are just beginning. Even with the world leaders calling for restraint on the part of Israel, I suspect the horrific carnage by Hamas fighters at the music festival will make Israeli leaders deaf to such pleas, at least for the foreseeable future.
There is one question that continues to receive significant media attention, even as Israeli retaliation operations proceed. It is how the best, pound-for-pound, intelligence service in the world failed to predict the recent Hamas attacks. It will take time to learn who failed to collect, analyze, and disseminate the actionable intelligence that might have been available on these attacks. Based on the several reports of Iranian involvement and the fact that it serves Iran's strategic goals in the region, it is remarkable that Mossad did not learn of the operation early in its planning cycle.
I think I recall that in the 1973 Yom Kippur War Mossad did report Egyptian and Syrian troop movements into advanced positions along the DMZ, but the political leadership in Israel did not believe either country capable of a serious attack and thought that both Egypt and Syria were simply involved in war games. So IDF reserves were not called up.
To me, what happened over the weekend in Israel is an entirely different situation and it is inexplicable that the several Israeli intelligence services could have missed the Hamas meetings with their Iranian advisors, the movement into Gaza of the various logistical supplies required of an operation of this size, and the early assaults that destroyed the walls and barriers around Gaza allowing Hamas terrorist to stream into Israel. There are supposed to be advanced electronic warning systems to detect tunnels and I would presume attacks on the walls/barriers. Why did they fail? And there must have been quick reaction forces on duty to respond to such incursions. Where were they?
Lots of questions and too early perhaps to get meaningful answers. But that will not stop them from being asked!
How the Hamas Surprise Attack from Gaza on Israel Could Play Out
Israel Goes on Offensive in Gaza After Shocking Hamas Invasion
Hamas Terror Assaults on Israel
All,
It is early days and I'll be adding more as information continues to come in from Israel. However, casualties on both sides are high and rising (current reports indicate that more than 600 Israelis have been killed and 2000+ wounded. Palestinian casualties in Gaze are high, with estimates of 400 killed and 1500 wounded).
In addition to more than 2,500 indiscriminate rocket attacks, Hamas has conducted multiple terror assaults, not just on the Israeli government, police, and military facilities and personnel but also on the civilian population. The results have caused the deaths, injuries, and the taking of an estimated 100 hostages, including women, children, and older Israelis.
The Internet videos of the Hamas attacks are very disturbing and I would caution against viewing them. This is an all-out war on civilians and the many videos now on the Internet are more than distressing and will undoubtedly get worse.
Many in the Media are comparing this attack to the combined military assaults of Egypt and Syria in the 1973 Yom Kippur War because of the failure of Israeli intelligence to predict the 1973 invasions and the apparent failure to predict the current Hamas terror attacks (See the attached WSJ article). The determination of who is at fault for this intelligence failure, if past examples like Pearl Harbor and 9/11 are a guide, will go on for years.
In the shorter term expect US military supplies, which are stretched because of our support for the Ukrainians (see the attached article from Defense News), to be offered to Israel, which will further strain our supply chains and make it more imperative that Congress authorize the funding necessary to reconstitute of our military stockpiles.
Congressional inaction damages both Ukrainian and US militaries
After Attack, Israel Wrestles With Question: How Could This Happen?
Zeihan Podcasts
Russian Oil Thrives Despite European Sanctions
Russia Might Lose Its Influence in Moldova and Transnistria
European Sanctions Cause Russian Natural Gas Collapse
The European Union: Will It Adapt or Die?
Zeihan and Soufan analysis and two additional articles
Hello All,
Got back from Europe on Monday but have been a bit ill, due to water I drank by mistake on Friday at our hotel in Munich. I'll have a special issue of the distribution list with pictures of the trip and a narrative, hopefully over the weekend. The trip was extraordinary!!!
As for this rather longish distro list, lots to get out. Several of you hoped I'd not work the distro list while on vacation. But I did, a little. I saved some of the most interesting articles and they are attached. First, our colleague Col. Forest Rittgers sent along a detailed update on the war in Ukraine, the Russian S-400 Surface to Air Missle system, and how the Ukrainians have been able to exploit weaknesses in it. The data on the S-400 is below and the detailed update on the war is attached. Many thanks, sir, for sending this along.
And lastly, I've included 2 articles from History.com that may be of interest on Benedict Arnold and Bleeding Kansas.
Best,
Rusty
Europe's Energy Prospects Ahead of the Winter Heating Season
How Bleeding Kansas Led to the Civil War
Rane, Zeihan Analysis and Ap News Articles on Death of Yevgeny Prigozhin Plus Other News
I'm getting this out today as the news is full of accounting of the recent death, probably an assassination/bombing, of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group. Many, including your author, thought it was only a matter of time, before Putin or the legion of enemies Prigozhin had, got to him. I've included pieces by the AP, RANE, and Zeihan on his death, among the hundreds of accounts in national and international media today.