Rusty’s Intelligence Blog
2024 Annual Forecast-RANE
I've copied the RANE 2024 Annual Forcast and included it below. Also, I've included a variety of content from the usual sources.
Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Deadly Bombings in Iran
Can the U.S. and Its Allies Secure the Red Sea From Houthi Attacks?
Final Post of 2023
I've included an article for the Atlantic Magazine on the attack on Nord Stream 2 that my older son, Col. Devon Capps, recommended, as It might be of interest to you: "THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ACT OF SABOTAGE IN MODERN TIMES."
As we are close to year's end, I've included articles on several notables who died in 2023 and are perhaps of interest from the intelligence, special operations in WWII, and criminal perspectives. WaPo has done good summaries of each in the obituaries of Simone Segouin, a French Resistance fighter, and the crimes of the "Unabomber," Ted Kaczynski, and FBI Special Agent and Soviet/Russian spy Robert Hanssen.
So, we have arrived again at our last distribution list of the year. Time for me to wish you all a terrific, safe, and healthy 2024. And also to thank you for your interest in the things I think are relevant to our lives and for sticking with me for another year. See you in 2024!
My warmest regards to you all,
Rusty
The Most Consequential Act of Sabotage in Modern Times
Ted Kaczynski, Who Planted Fear and Death as the Unabomber, Dies at 81
Simone Segouin, French Resistance Fighter, Dies at 97
Robert Hanssen, Fbi Agent Who Spied for Moscow, Dies in Prison at 79
The Potential Ramifications of Israel's Alleged Campaign to Kill Hamas Leaders
Zeihan Post America Series Continues
Today's country shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Sure, Turkey has been relatively silent over the past 70 years, but as American guardianship of the global seas declines, Turkey will reemerge as a dominant power.
Much of Turkey's significance stems from its very, very fortunate geography; it controls the Turkish Straits and several other key waterways. This means that if anyone wants to move anything in this region, guess who they have to work with - Bingo - Turkey.
That's the driving factor here, but it leaves Turkey with some big decisions. Should it partner with Ukraine against Russia or expand its influence in the Caucasus? Should it try to dominate the Aegean or displace German power in the Balkans? Should it absorb Mesopotamia and become the determining power of the Persian Gulf or make a bid for control of the Eastern Mediterranean? Given Turkey's limited power to pursue all options simultaneously, it has some hefty strategic decisions to make that will shape its future.
For our next installment in the 'Post-American' series, we're looking at Northern Africa. This region only has a few countries that will turn out alright and a lot that will hurt for some time.
So, who's topping the leaderboard? Countries like Morocco and Tunisia have a leg up thanks to their -somewhat- functional economies. On the flipside, countries like Algeria, Libya, and Egypt have an uphill battle ahead of them.
This region will be far from stagnant between military interventions, dependency on extra-regional powers, and a looming famine. But we're only scratching the surface of this continent, so we'll dive into Sub-Saharan Africa later in the series.
More Japanese American Followup
All,
Our colleague, MG Tom Needham, who in the past commanded the Army troops in Alaska, shared some comments related to Japanese POWs in Alaska during WWII that I thought you might find of interest:
Rusty,
Many folks do not know that we had a POW camp at Fort Greely, AK during WWII. About 40 of them died and are buried at the national cemetery at Fort Richardson, in a separate area from the US graves. Memorial Day was always a tough call. In 1995 the Japanese Consulate in Anchorage wanted a combined ceremony. My boss, a wonderful USAF LTG, told me it was my call and that he would be attending. I had been heckled earlier at a combined ceremony at Fort Carson, which had become quite ugly. As a result of that experience, I decided to go with what we’d done in the past in Alaska - a separate ceremony. In the second ceremony for Japanese POWs, we provided the band, honor guard, etc. After the ceremony, the Japanese chargé d'affaires thanked me and hoped that a combined ceremony would happen one day. I am sure that by now the ceremony has become a combined affair. In retrospect, I should have agreed to the combined ceremony. The press did not comment on the separate ceremonies then, and many Aklaska citizens never knew about it. Nor did most of them know that Japan had occupied two of our islands in the Aleutian chain in WWII, until the 7th Infantry Division retook them with a lot of support from the Navy.
Happy New Year,
TOM
Japanese American Followup
First I'd like to share with you comments from our colleagues on my recent posting on the relocation of Japanese-Americans during WWII. I much appreciate their taking the time to engage with me and hope you find their comments of interest.
From Bill Cleveland former FBI Supervisory Special Agent living in California:
Merry Christmas, Rusty. Enjoyed the text you included regarding Japanese removal. I have a good friend who, as a child, was removed from California to a camp in New Jersey. The more I think about what was done to Japanese Americans the more I wonder what’s next.
Below is an extended exchange between Col. Forest Rittgers who is retired from the Army, was my Battalion Commander in Vietnam, and is now living in Texas:
Rusty,
I read your comments regarding the internment of Japanese-Americans with great interest. I was old enough in December 1941 to remember the public reaction to the Pearl Harbor attack (we tuned in the radio to President Roosevelt’s “Day of Infamy” announcement during my younger brother’s 4th birthday party.). Our dad was a reserve officer and had been called to active duty the previous year as our country leaned toward more direct involvement in the European war. A threat from the Far East was not on the minds of the American people. So, the announcement of a sneak attack was taken to heart. I recall no public objections to the internment decisions. To the contrary, they were applauded.
I can’t help but wonder what the public sympathies would be today should some sort of Islamic cabal were to strike the US. A 9/11-style attack magnified many times over. And our government’s reaction? The current campus reactions to the Israeli-Hamas dispute would be but a tip of the iceberg. I believe public reaction would be much the same as in 1941, and that folks with any Islamic connection would be quickly rounded up, if only to appease public fears.
Unlike most countries, we haven’t experienced war in our homeland since 1865. Our people haven’t a clue as to what would take to defend our country and experience the personal tragedies and privation of living under such circumstances.
Forest
Hey Sir,
I enjoyed reading your recollections of the internment of the internment of Japanese-Americans during WWII. Thank you for taking the time to write and pass it on. Your efforts in doing so compel me to respond with some questions and a few thoughts.
First, where were you and your family living and how old were you at that time?
In my research of that event, I too saw no public outcry against the internment, as you indicated. There were some notable exceptions, however, and one would surprise the Hoover haters. Both the former Director and the Attorney General at that time, Francis Biddle, advised FDR against the action, saying it was illegal to incarcerate American citizens, which most of those interned were, without the "due process" of a trial in federal court for each. My research also indicated that while there were some Japanese spies in the US and the Territory of Hawaii before Dec. 7, most who spied for Japan were recruited Caucasians and serving Japanese naval officers, posing as English language students. Notable, I've not found a single case of sabotage by either Japanese or Japanese-Americans following Pearl Harbor in Hawaii or the Mainland, tho there were scores of sabotage rumors in both locations. Sabotage and fears of sabotage were the primary justifications for the relocation of Japanese populations from the Western Defense Zone. It's also interesting to me that Japanese were relocated from the West Coast states but none from Hawaii, which had a large Japanese minority.
I think your comparisons of Pearl Harbor to 9/11, to Oct 7, 2023, and our current deluge of hate crimes directed at both Jewish and Muslim targets in the US are on point. President George W. Bush was quick to go on the record following 9/11 that it was not Muslims in general that had attacked the US, but a very small fringe element of fanatics whose views did not represent the majority. I too wonder with the polarization of our country now what might happen if another terror attack of the magnitude of 9/11 were carried out by supporters of Hamas in the US? I do know the FBI and DHS have a Custodian Detention List (Program) of proscribed individuals to be rounded up should we go to war with various countries or be attacked by national, religious, and ethnic groups. The last time I recall this type of round-up was carried out domestically by the FBI was during the 2 wars we had with Iraq. I suspect in its current state of low public esteem the FBI may be slow to act. Much more likely would be vigilante attacks by lone wolf terrorists from the fringes of some of the many right-wing domestic terror groups (Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, the Sovereign Citizen Movement, and the hundreds of militia groups).
Just some thoughts that spring to mind after reading your interesting and thoughtful comments. Thanks for engaging with me and I'm wondering if you'd allow this discussion to be added to a future distribution list mailing. I am always hopeful of encouraging others on the list to share their views.
Rusty
Thanks for your very comprehensive response! I was 10 years old and living in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Dad was on the ROTC staff at Coe College, where he previously coached football, basketball, and track since 1929. He graduated from Coe in 1925, was commissioned through its ROTC, and was serving as a reserve officer when called to active duty in 1940.
Perhaps, there were no confirmed incidents of sabotage or espionage by Japanese-Americans, because they were rounded up and interned rapidly. I can understand why the President acted swiftly and aggressively, given the surprise attack, the fact that we were now facing aggression from 2 directions, and the natural public fear of any American citizens of Japanese, German, or Italian ancestry. How were they to tell friends from foes? We faced a similar dilemma in Vietnam, trying to sort out the good guys from the bad guys. That the internment of Japanese-Americans continued throughout the war indicates there was both official and public distrust and no good way to decide who should be released and who not. There are higher priorities. Perhaps, some of those interned and their offspring have sought or are seeking reparations.You are free to use any of this as you wish.
Forest
Japanese American Incarceration (and Other News and Analysis as 2023 Ends)
I’ve included and article from WaPo ("Biden should honor the woman who stood up to Japanese American incarceration") that I recommend to you of the several I've included below, this is one on a young Japanese-American woman who was interned in 1942 along with 110,000 other Japanese and Japanese-Americans on the West Coast and who took her/their case to the US Supreme Court. You may recall that one of the modules I regularly teach to our USIC customers is on Japanese espionage from 1925 to 1945 and in it I briefly cover this shameful period in our history. I will not give you chapter and verse on this internment, but should you like to learn more I am going to include below some comments I posted in a distribution list I sent out to you all several years ago and a good Time Magazine article on the subject: "The WWII Incarceration of Japanese Americans Stretched Beyond U.S. Borders."
So, I'll end this distribution list with my best regards to you all and my wish that you and your families have a joyful Christmas and a safe, healthy 2024.
- Rusty
Biden Should Honor the Woman Who Stood Up to Japanese American Incarceration
The WWII Incarceration of Japanese Americans Stretched Beyond U.S. Borders
Excerpt from Rusty’s earlier writing on Japanese American Incarceration…
I'm forwarding to you an article I found in today's New York Times which may be of interest. Its focus, generally, is on the Supreme Court case of Fred Korematsu, who was 23 when he was arrested on a street corner in San Leandro, Calif., in May 1942, for being a Japanese-American.
I am somewhat familiar with the circumstances surrounding the arrest and relocation of Korematsu and the other Japanese-Americans in the United States, as it is a subject that I discuss in my class on the evolution of American intelligence as well as in the book I'm currently writing on that subject.
There were two national programs to arrest and intern Japanese, Germans, and Italians in the United States after Pearl Harbor. The first program was run by the FBI; had long been planned; was based upon lists that were prepared ahead of time containing the names of diplomats, businessmen and women, and students in the United States; and was completed with the detention of 5000+ of those on the "A-List" of foreign nationals in these categories in the first 72 hours after Pearl Harbor by FBI Special Agents in every field office in the Bureau in which they resided.
This first program focused exclusively on foreign nationals/enemy aliens in the United States and those detained were held in hotels and resorts, like the Greenbrier resort in West Virginia, until they could be traded for our diplomats, businessmen, and students in those countries with which we were at war.
The second program was run by the United States Army, approved by Pres. Roosevelt, but objected to by both the Atty. Gen. and director of the FBI argued that the internment of Japanese-American citizens, because they were American citizens, was illegal without affording them the due process of the federal courts. Despite these objections the program proceeded and Japanese-American citizens were detained and transported to detention facilities all over the United States.
More than 100,000 Japanese Americans were relocated from the Western Defensive Zone of California, Oregon, and Washington state. It should be noted that if it was fear of sabotage by Japanese-Americans that prompted the relocation, none were relocated from the Territory of Hawaii, which was arguably the most sensitive military and naval area at that time.
This was a dark day for the rule of law and the Constitution. It contains arguably an overreaction to the unsubstantiated reports of sabotage by the Japanese in Hawaii and on the West Coast by our senior military commanders and the President of the United States. There was no sabotage by either Japanese enemy aliens or Japanese-Americans in Hawaii or on the West Coast after Pearl Harbor. There is also a problematic ruling by the Supreme Court in their support of the president’s decision.
National programs like this make it important that every decade or so we remind ourselves that is easy to make mistakes when fear and rumor are allowed to cloud our judgment. History tends to repeat itself when it is forgotten, and some of our views/fears today, relative to more recently arrived immigrant groups, should be viewed, perhaps, in light of the lessons to be learned from this case.
Who Are the Houthis and Why Are They Attacking Ships in the Red Sea?
The Islamic State’s High Stakes War in the Philippines
The Implications of a Russian Victory in Ukraine
Netanyahu’s Mission: Destroy Hamas, Bring Hostages Home – and Get Reelected
Gauging the Fallout From the Colorado Court Ruling Against Trump
Southerners Who Fought for the Union
I've included an interesting article on Southerners who fought for the Union during the Civil War, the First Alabama Union Cavalry, which I found both new to me and interesting.
Failure at the Fence
WaPo and Frontline have teamed up to produce a 28-minute video on how the Israeli "Iron Fence" failed on Oct. 7, 2023. I've included the written article below, as well as the YouTube.
Merry Christmas! RANE, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis Plus New Articles
I've attached an excellent accounting of the Boston Tea Party by HCR on the 250th anniversary of that event, FYI. I have also included Peter Zeihan's Christmas gift, " a 'Post-America' series that breaks down what the world looks like as the US steps back as global protector." I will include future segments as they come out.
Lastly, I've included a WaPo article on the massive AI upgrading of French CCTV: "AI is powering a revolution in policing, at the Olympics and beyond."
Time now for me to become a movie critic: for those interested in deep fakes or wondering about the fears of civil rights groups concerning the use of AI by government agencies, you might watch the 2019 British series "Capture." The first season is on Prime Video and a second season is coming. Cindy and I liked it and would give it 4 stars. My Christmas gift to you all...(Peter Zeihan's gift for the Holidays gave me the idea).
250th anniversary of the Boston Tea Party
Ai Is Powering a Revolution in Policing, at the Olympics and Beyond
He’s Wanted for Wirecard’s Missing $2 Billion. He’s Now Suspected of Being a Russian Spy
Ukraine's Long and Bumpy Road to EU Membership Officially Begins
In the Red Sea, Houthi Attacks Force the U.S. to Mull a Tougher Response
The Crusade Against Ukraine: Eurasia’s Last Medieval Power At War
Another of the organizations I follow is the Hoover Institution. I've attached an excellent article from their latest edition of STRATEGIKA: "The Crusade Against Ukraine: Eurasia’s Last Medieval Power At War." STRATEGIKA is an online journal that analyzes ongoing issues of national security in light of conflicts of the past—the efforts of the Military History Working Group of historians, analysts, and military personnel focusing on military history and contemporary conflict. If you've ever wondered what's going on in the minds of Putin and his fellow Russians concerning how they view war in general and specifically as it pertains to Ukraine, this is a good place to start. I've also attached a listing of other, similar articles in this edition of STRATEGIKA below, in case you find the topic useful and want to read more.
The Crusade Against Ukraine: Eurasia’s Last Medieval Power At War
Ukraine and the Russian Way of War
Avoiding Strategic Traps—Key to Prevailing in Great Power Competition
Putin’s Legitimacy is the Strategic Target
The Peril Of Ukrainian Attacks Against Nuclear Russia?
The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests vs. Ideals
The Aims and Implications of Putin's Trip to the UAE and Saudi Arabia
Espionage Case - Victor Manuel Rocha
We are following an interesting espionage case involving a senior State Department officer and former Ambassador to Bolivia, Victor Manuel Rocha, 73, and I've included the DOJ press release, with a link to the complaint, and an AP article.
I've also included a RANE article on Henry Kissinger's legacy for those who don't know as much as you'd like to know about the very bright, pragmatic bureaucrat and negotiator.
Former Career Us Diplomat Charged With Secretly Spying for Cuban Intelligence for Decades
The Legacy of Henry Kissinger: Interests vs. Ideals
Rane, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis Plus News Articles
It appears that the exchange of Hamas hostages for Palestinian prisoners and the cease-fire in Gaza is holding a day at a time with significant world pressure on Israel, including from the US, to extend the peace. Our colleague Dan Mulvenna and I were just discussing yesterday the widespread political demonstrations against the War in Israel on college campuses and elsewhere and that it was very like the anti-Vietnam War movement's demonstrations and riots of the late 1960s and 70s. And today (Wed. Nov. 29, 2023) this article in the WSJ hit the streets: "Gaza Protests at Colleges Open a Generational Divide." For those of you who remember the anti-Vietnam War demonstations, I thought you might find its contents of interest.
I have also included an article on the attempted murder of a Sikh separatist leader in NY from the AP. This is a similar case to one that occurred in Canada in September which put significant strains on relations between those two countries and will, no doubt, affect future US-India affairs.
Gaza Protests at Colleges Open a Generational Divide
Indian Official Plotted to Assassinate Sikh Separatist Leader in New York, Us Prosecutors Say
What Is Russia's Role in the Mideast Crisis?
How Much Longer Will Israel and Hamas Keep Extending Their Truce?
What To Watch For at the COP28 Climate Summit
Exclusive: Maps Show U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Across Globe, Spanning 78 Countries
From Peter Zeihan
For those looking for some longer format content, here's a recent interview from the NAIOP Podcast: Inside CRE.
My Latest Interview on the NAIOP Podcast: Inside CRE
I chatted with Christopher Ware about current U.S. demographic shifts, how the labor force is changing, and why now is the best time for businesses to hire and borrow. I also dive into China’s precipitous population decline, how the cost of manufactured goods will increase, and why we need to double the size of the industrial plant in North America.
I encourage you to tune in if you want a well-rounded, long-form discussion.
Our Warnings on Hamas Were Ignored, Israel’s Women Border Troops Say
In addition to our normal offerings today, I would call your particular attention to an article from Politico that our colleague, Gina Bennett, forwarded to me on Friday: "Our warnings on Hamas were ignored, Israel’s women border troops say." It is a very troubling and sad piece on the failure of Israeli senior military, intelligence, and national command officials to take seriously the reporting from the IDF's watcher unit (many of whom lost their lives in the attack) on the "Iron Wall" in the months preceding the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks. This is the first of what I expect will be many reports on the significant intelligence and command failures that led the Hamas assaults to be successful beyond their wildest expectations. Gina and I have discussed similarities to the numerous pre-9/11 intelligence failures, which is also a module that we currently teach to our USIC students. Thanks, Gina for sending this article!
Our Warnings on Hamas Were Ignored, Israel’s Women Border Troops Say
This week's infographic describes over a century of politics and conflict in the Gaza Strip.
Rane, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis Plus Numerous News Articles and Commentaries
There is a lot for you to process in the edition of the distribution list, so let's get started.
HCR had an informative take on the APEC conference in San Francisco this week regarding US-China relations and I've included a portion of her Nov. 17 offering below. Peter Zeihan's coverage of the same event is included below as well.
I've also read and included an excellent WaPo article that continues to flesh out answers to the questions about intelligence failures vs Hamas planning, training, OPSEC, execution, and successes on Oct. 7. The article is titled "How Hamas exploited Israel’s reliance on tech to breach barrier on Oct. 7." WaPo has done an excellent job of analyzing and combining graphics and video evidence into an 11-minute video of the months-long Hamas operation. I recommend you give it a look. It is compelling!
There are also several articles analyzing the hostage/prisoner exchange including one by al Jazeera you may find of interest.
I've attached both the written transcript and the link to the Ezra Klein podcast of a very complete, but necessarily longish, look at the history of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process in the NY Times: "The Best Primer I’ve Heard on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Efforts."
I've also attached the full article but excerpted my "Cliff Notes" version just below from the Monday NY Times "Between Israelis and Palestinians, a Lethal Psychological Chasm Grows." It speaks to the intractability of the positions on both sides and how unlikely there will ever be a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
"The relentless weaponization of history goes all the way back to biblical times and the divergent fates of the estranged sons of Abraham — Isaac, the patriarch of the Israelites, and Ishmael, a prophet of Islam. (Muslims regard all three as prophets.)In the intervening decades, Hamas and the ultranationalist religious Israeli right have each extended their influence. The conflict now involves fundamentalist religious ideologies, distinct in critical regards but equally convinced that all the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River has been deeded to them by God.
Mahmoud al-Zahar, a co-founder of Hamas, whose charter calls for Israel’s destruction, told me in an interview that year: “Israel will be eliminated because it is a foreign body.” Referring to Israeli Jews, he said, “Why should they come from Ethiopia, or Poland or America? There are six million in Palestine. OK, take them. America is very wide. You can make a new district for Jews.”
Neither people, Israeli nor Palestinian, present in roughly equal numbers on the land to which they are fiercely attached, is going away. But increasingly each has denied even the identity of the other. West Bank Palestinians seldom refer to “Israelis,” almost always to “Jews.” Israel resists calling its Arab minority, more than 20 percent of the population, “Palestinians,” which is what they are.
“You are dealing with two traumatized peoples,” said Gershom Gorenberg, a historian and author. “The trauma of the present is linked to multigenerational trauma. People can’t even agree on events, let alone what the events mean.”
In a video of a Hamas gunman involved in the Oct. 7 massacre, the gunman phones his father back in Gaza and says: “I am on the other side killing Jews. They cannot live happily when we live the way we live.”
The Palestinian hatred Moshe Dayan perceived and vowed to resist by being “prepared and armed, strong and determined,” grows still, fed by Israeli oppression, fencing-off and control, as well as chronic Palestinian misgovernment. Palestinians in Gaza, whose dead number more than 12,000 according to the health ministry in Gaza, fear annihilation.
These fears are met by the “Never Again” of a Jewish people who know the meaning of genocide in the form of the Holocaust and seek through the foundation of their own state to put an end to millennial persecution. The defeat on Oct. 7 was a shattering blow to this aspiration.
This war in Gaza, triggered by Hamas’s ruthless application of its charter, is existential in that sense for an Israel that suddenly feels smaller and more vulnerable."
Heather Cox Richardson - November 17
Between Israelis and Palestinians, a Lethal Psychological Chasm Grows
How Hamas Exploited Israel’s Reliance on Tech to Breach Barrier on Oct. 7
Moorpark Professor Arrested in Death of Jewish Protester Paul Kessler in Thousand Oaks
Pageantry vs. Progress: Reviewing the Biden-Xi Meeting
The Threat of Russian Influence Operations in Serbia and Kosovo
What to Make of Hamas and Israel's Pending Cease-Fire
Soufan Analysis Articles
Israeli Cabinet Approves Hostage Deal and Temporary Cease-Fire in Gaza
Differences Affect the Iranian ‘Axis of Resistance' Response to the Mideast Crisis
Jordan Faces Risks From Israel-Hamas War
Anti-Semitic and Islamophobic Incidents on the Rise as Gaza Conflict Continues
RANE, Soufan and Zeihan Analysis and News Articles
The initial article from WaPo that I've attached to this distro list is the first I've seen that discusses in depth the Hamas attack on Oct 7, the planning, surveillance, the very effective operation security, the simple but effective deception operations that lulled the IDF and Israeli's politicians and national command structure into complacency and the unexpected success, even to Hamas commanders, of the assault. It also considers the motivations and the desired endgame of Hamas leadership and the general acceptance of martyrdom of many Hamas fighters and commanders. “Palestine is ours from the river to the sea and from the south to the north,” Khaled Mashaal, the group's former leader, said in 2012, in a speech in Gaza celebrating the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas. “There will be no concession on any inch of the land.” (FYI, I've also added an AP article explaining the use of the phrase "From the river to the sea")Hamas repeatedly said they would never negotiate Israel's existence and in the months leading up to Oct 7 Israeli leadership forgot that fact, but they won't do it again!
I just added several more from RANE, Soufan and Zeihan including a good analysis for RANE titled "The Path to Peace in Gaza Runs Through the West Bank," which you may find of interest.
Hamas Envisioned Deeper Attacks, Aiming to Provoke an Israeli War
‘From the River to the Sea': Why These 6 Words Spark Fury and Passion Over the Israel-Hamas War