Rusty’s Intelligence Blog
The Terrorism and Intelligence Books We Recommend
Our instructors, Rusty Capps and Dan Mulvenna, have both worked to compile the two bibliographys below with recommendations and reviews of the best books to read for anyone in an Intelligence field.
How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust
I've attached an excellent, in-depth article from the WSJ on China's population problems (which Peter Zeihan has discussed for several years in his books and Podcasts) "How China Miscalculated Its Way to a Baby Bust."
I've also attached an article from the NY Times, "The Road to 1948." This is an excellent, detailed look at the decisive moments leading to the founding of the state of Israel and the displacement of Palestinians caused by that UN action. It considers the question, "Could different, more positive, long-term solutions have been possible? The article is in the question-and-answer, interview format of a panel of historians — three Palestinians, two Israelis, and a Canadian American. It also contains numerous historical pictures of events and players, making it interesting and informative. It took me a while to edit it into a format that would allow you to read it, and I think enough of its educational value to be providing it to my students in our classes on the "Evolution of Middle Eastern Terror Groups" and " Iranian Intelligence Services and Operations."
What To Watch For As Israel Advances Into Rafah
After October 7th, Is Saudi-Israeli Normalization Just a Mirage?
The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State
As I mentioned in my last posting, we have updated our website, and I would like you to please give it a look and make any comments you think are helpful.
I wanted to let you know that there have not been the usual number of articles this past week that I felt compelled to pass on to you. I suspect things may pick up soon.
US Strikes in Syria and Iraq and Sinn Fein First Minister
First, we are rolling out our remodeled website over the next few days. I invite you to give it a look and make any comments you think are helpful. I want to thank all the members of our staff who have worked so long and hard on the site, especially Matt Sherrard, our terrific webmaster, and Olivia Franse, our Chief Intelligence Moderator. Matt worked on the technology side of the street, and Olivia worked on the content and the site’s new look.
As I prepare this distribution list to send off, I want to call your attention to two WaPo articles from today's paper. First, the latest on the US strikes in Syria and Iraq in response to the killing of US servicemen in Jordan by Iranian proxy militias: "U.S. strikes in Syria and Iraq kill dozens of militants."
The second article covers a truly historic event that you may have missed in naming Michelle O’Neill as the first minister of Northern Ireland: "Northern Ireland gets its first Sinn Féin first minister in historic shift." For those of you who have followed "the Troubles" over the decades since the late 1960s, you know what a remarkable event this is. Our company has taught a module on "The Troubles" and the counterterrorism tradecraft innovations and lessons learned in that conflict for years and I can attest to the unique nature of a Catholic first minister of Northern Ireland.
Lastly, for those of you who are interested, there is an excellent 2023 crime series called “Blue Lights” on Amazon Prime about the challenges of policing faced by the Police Services of Northern Ireland. The PSNI replaced the Royal Ulster Constabulary, the exclusive Protestant police force of Northern Ireland, following the negotiated “Good Friday Accords” that ended most of the violence of the “Troubles” in 1998.
US Naval Update Map: Feb 1, 2024
Iran-US Tensions Will Remain High, Despite Both Sides' Desire to Avoid a War
How Will the Gaza War Impact Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon's Economies?
Terrorist Target of Cultural-Heritage Sites-Soufan Group Report
Heather Cox Richardson on Abraham Lincoln
I've included the most recent offering of HCR below because it makes powerful arguments for a provision placed by our "Founding Fathers" in the Constitution and argued in The Federalist Papers for the separation of church and state, using an early speech by Abraham Lincoln (“The Perpetuation of Our Political Institutions,” delivered in 1838, 22 years before he became president). The former POTUS goes on to make a second point that I have long thought correct, that no foreign power will ever conquer our country and destroy our democracy, but that our defeat can “come only from within.” Some remarkable conclusions from a self-taught, back-woods, 28-year-old Midwest lawyer. I leave it to you to decide if his words have relevance today.
I've also included a detailed INFOGRAPHIC from the Soufan Group on the Red Sea Crisis, which you may find helpful in putting that subject in perspective. Because this is so timely, I plan to send this distro list today rather than later in the week, as planned.
Just as I was beginning to send this off the following came over the wire from CNN: "Three US troops killed in drone attack in Jordan, at least two dozen injured." Another example of the dangerous, escilating violence in the Middle East.
Larger Than Usual Number of Articles
Along with the usual fare from RANE and Soufan, I've collated a larger-than-usual number of articles over the past few days that I thought may be of interest.
This first article is an excellent overview of the situation in the Middle East and how close things are to a general conflict. Some say that the war has already begun, but I thought, if you wanted a "Cliff Notes" version of that situation, you might find this CNN article of interest.
I've also included an informative article from WaPo on some causes political psychologists are finding for the increasing political polarization of our country: "Science is revealing why American politics are so intensely polarized."
Also included:
An excellent NY Times OpEd that gives a thoughtful summary of the major word flash points: "A Titanic Geopolitical Struggle Is Underway."
A WSJ piece on what will be a surprise to some on the intel we gave the Iranians on the ISIS-K attack at the Qassem Solemani grave site: "U.S. Secretly Alerted Iran Ahead of Islamic State Terrorist Attack."
A Reuters article on the extension of Taiwan's conscription program in response to thereat from PRC: "Taiwan Begins Extended One-Year Conscription in Response to China Threat."
A CNN piece from their excellent coverage in "Meanwhile in the Middle East" on the ruling by UN's Court of Justice in the Hague on the issue of Israeli genocide in Gaza: "Why both South Africa and Israel are welcoming the UN court’s ruling in a landmark genocide case."
Growing Farmer Protests Add to the EU's Political Woes
Iran Demonstrates Strength to Keep Adversaries at Bay
While Iran’s Recent Strikes Show Weakness, Its Threat of Escalation Is Working
Why Iran Is Sending Drones to the Sudanese Armed Forces
Despite the Terrorism Designation, the Houthis Remain Undeterred
Violence Amplifies in Ukraine and Russia, Even as Battle Lines Remain Static
Rane Articles Mid-January
What Western Strikes on the Houthis Mean for Yemen and the Region
What To Make of the Recent Strikes Between Iran and Pakistan
What a War With Hezbollah Could Mean for Israel
A Rough Power Transition Thrusts Poland Into a Political Crisis
Biden Administration Re-Designates Houthis as Specially Designated Global Terrorists
Times of Israel Articles and More
I've included two articles from the Times of Israel on subjects we have discussed before related to intelligence failures and Middle East diplomacy before the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terror attack. The first article (Parents, MKs call for probe into IDF refusal to heed surveillance troops’ warnings) is about the all-female, surveillance unit, the 414th unit of the IDF's Combat Intelligence Collection Corps early warnings on Hamas activities that were disregarded by their superiors. More than 15 members of this unit were killed by Hamas terrorists early in the attacks on October 7. The second article (Saudi envoy says kingdom ‘absolutely’ still open to normalization deal with Israel) focuses on the pragmatic attitude of the Saudis concerning their movement toward rapprochement with Israel, which was temporarily derailed by the Israel-Hamas War.
There is also a Manchester Guardian and a DOJ press release on the sentencing of US Navy Petty Officer Wenheng Zhao to a prison sentence of 2 years and a fine of $5,500.
Lastly, there is an in-depth piece by RANE on the future of Israel's current far-right coalition government: "Israel's Government Is Once Again at Risk of Collapse.)
Parents, MKs Call for Probe Into Idf Refusal to Heed Surveillance Troops’ Warnings
Saudi Envoy Says Kingdom ‘Absolutely’ Still Open to Normalization Deal With Israel
Us Navy Petty Officer Sentenced to Two Years in Prison Over Spying for China